| （1.School of Physical Education，Jiangxi Normal University，Nanchang 330027，China；2.Laser Sports Medicine Laboratory，South China Normal University，Guangzhou 510006，China） Abstract: In order to probe into the possibility to predict the performances of high performance male medium and long distance swimmers by utilizing metabonomical methods, the authors analyzed the morning urine of 18 male swimmers preparing for participating in the Asian Games once a week, 1 month before the 15th Asian Games, by utilizing metabonomical methods based on nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), then established metabonomical models for predicting the performances of high performance male medium and long distance swimmer based on standardized data obtained from the one dimensional NMR spectrum of hydrogen by using a monitored mode iden-tification method – the gradual discriminant analysis method created by Fisher, and revealed the following test result of the prediction performance of the models: the sample prediction accuracy rates of the medalists (top 3), non medalists (beyond top 3), finalists (top 8) and non finalists (beyond top 8) were up to 90%, which preliminarily proved the feasibility to predict the competition performances of high performance male medium and long distance swimmers by utilizing metabonomical methods.
Key words: sports physiology；metabonomical model；performance prediction；male swimmer；morning urine |
