(1.Department of Physical Education，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084，China；2.China Basketball College，Beijing Sport University，Beijing 100084，China；3.School of Physical Education and Sport Training，Shanghai University of Sport，Shanghai 200438，China；4.School of Sports Engineering，Beijing Sport University，Beijing 100084，China) Abstract: The aim of this study was to identify the casual relationship between the match performance indicators and match outcome, and comprised of 92 games during the 2019 Men’s Basketball World Cup of FIBA. Weighted least squares (WLS) and quantile regression (QR) were used to construct model to explore the relationship between independent variables (traditional variables, advanced variables and situational variables) and dependent variables (the final winning percentage for every team). The study showed that: (1) the winning percentage will decreases when confronting with strong teams than competing with weak teams at this tournament. For all teams, defensive rebounds (P < 0.01) were the key performance indicator which was positively related to match outcome. In addition, assists (P < 0.05) and personal fouls (P < 0.01) were significantly positively related to match outcome for low winning percentage teams, whereas turnovers (P < 0.01) and personal fouls (P < 0.01) were significantly negatively related to match outcome for high winning percentage teams. (2) Quantile regression can provide more detailed data information and identify the influencing factors at different percentiles compared with traditional linear regression, which can provide scientific evidence to improve teams’ sports performance.
Key words: competition and training；key performance indicators；competition situation；quantile regression；sports performance analysis；Basketball World Cup of FIBA |
